Jazz Nation,
After a long offseason (made even longer with the Jazz missing the playoffs last year), an eventful draft, summer league, and not-so-brilliant preseason, we are finally on the eve of another season opening game for our Jazz. This post is dedicated to projections on records and standings and other predictions.
Wins, Losses, and The Standings
Let's start with Bleacher Report's NBA columnist Adam Fromal. He predicts that the Jazz will slog their way to a 22-60 record, which would put them 14th of 15 teams in the Western conference and 28 out of 30 teams overall (tied with the Orlando Magic). Ouch! That would rank as the worst season in franchise history, as even the expansion New Orleans Jazz went 23-59 in their first season.
Mark Hawkins of Random NBA Fan makes a game-by-game prediction for the Jazz in the 2013-14 season, resulting in a 26-56 record. I didn't see a summary with the predicted record of each team, but a record like that obviously would have the Jazz far from the playoffs. Coincidentally, the season before the Jazz were able to trade up in the draft and pick Deron Williams, they went 26-56. Perhaps that would be a good omen for the team's 2014 draft.
In the last record prediction we'll look at, David Williams from You Have No Game predicts that the Jazz will finish 29-53, saying that there is too much talent on the Jazz for them to do worse than that. Based on all have his record predictions the Jazz would finish 25th out of the 30 NBA teams and 13th in the West.
I'm also more than willing to admit that I predicted the Jazz to exceed expectations and go 38-44. I must have been drinking the Jazz Kool-Aid at the time because that seems unreachable. My revised prediction is 27-55. The Jazz will get a few more wins than some people expect, but they will likely have some difficulties in finishing out games.
Other Predictions
Wins and losses aside, since most Jazz fans and observers will agree that the Jazz will miss the playoffs, but do you expect to see happen this season for the team? Here is a list of some things I think will happen in 2013-14:
1. Gordon Hayward will lead the team in scoring.
2. Hayward's FG will go down in the process because he will be the focal point of opposing defenses.
3. Trey Burke will win Rookie of the Month once this season.
4. Derrick Favors will lead the Jazz in rebounding and be in the top 10 in the NBA in this area.
5. When watching the games on TV or in person, there will be more empty green seats visible than in most recent seasons.
6. The Jazz will stand pat (again) at the trade deadline in February.
7. For the last time for years to come, nobody from the Jazz will be an All-Star. Someone WILL get there in 2014-15.
8. The young guys will prove to be as good as we've hoped.
I'd love to get some comments about what Jazz Nation thinks in regards to wins and losses and any other predictions or expectations for the season.
Go Jazz! Let's start this season off with a bang against the Thunder!
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
Wednesday, October 16, 2013
The Break Heard 'Round Jazz Nation
If you're reading this post, you probably already know about Trey Burke's injury. In case you missed it, here's a video of the incident. Don't worry, there's nothing gory. In fact, aside from Burke grabbing his hand immediately, you'd have a hard time determining that Burke suffered a broken finger on the play.
It was reported Monday morning that Trey Burke would undergo surgery Tuesday morning to repair his fractured right index finger. It was also noted that he would require pins and be out 8-12 weeks. Following the surgery, which was deemed a success, here is the official word from the Jazz:
So it sounds like Trey will be out a minimum of three weeks with the finger in a splint, and at this point, it's anyone's guess how much time he'll need after that.
He's never had to come back from surgery to repair a broken finger before, so take this for what it's worth, but here is Trey's own view on the matter of how long he'll be out:
What should the Jazz do in the meantime? Should they trade for a point guard, sign a free agent, or just keep the point guards (John Lucas III, Scott Machado, and Lester Hudson) on the training camp roster on the regular season roster until Burke is back? Several viewpoints and rumors have been floating around. Jazz Nation (@WeAreJazzNation - seriously, follow him if you're not already!) mentioned liking Rodrigue Beaubois. Matt Moore from CBS Sports reported that the Jazz may be interested in acquiring Marquis Teague from the Bulls. Moore also wisely points out that since they're in rebuilding mode anyway, the Jazz don't have a huge need to pick up another point guard. There are reports of a mutual interest between former Jazzman Jamaal Tinsley and the Jazz. Perhaps the most entertaining thought on the matter to me comes from Bleacher Report's Andy Bailey, who thinks it's time to trade for Jimmer Fredette.
My take is that the Jazz would be fine without bringing in another point guard. There are three other point guards still on the roster. Why not hold onto all of them and then let go of Machado or Hudson once Burke is ready to return? The Jazz could even waive Machado or Hudson prior to the season knowing that Alec Burks can handle some of the point guard duties if needed.
What do you think about Burke's injury and the fallout fellow Jazz fans? Feel free to comment, and I'll get a poll added shortly.
It was reported Monday morning that Trey Burke would undergo surgery Tuesday morning to repair his fractured right index finger. It was also noted that he would require pins and be out 8-12 weeks. Following the surgery, which was deemed a success, here is the official word from the Jazz:
Trey Burke's finger was placed in a cast/splint where it will remain for approximately three weeks, at which time he will be re-evaluated.
— Utah Jazz (@utahjazz) October 15, 2013
So it sounds like Trey will be out a minimum of three weeks with the finger in a splint, and at this point, it's anyone's guess how much time he'll need after that.
He's never had to come back from surgery to repair a broken finger before, so take this for what it's worth, but here is Trey's own view on the matter of how long he'll be out:
8-12 weeks is very unreasonable people and idk who made that up. I appreciate the support and prayers but 4-6 weeks is more likely. Thanks
— Trey Burke (@Trey_Burke3) October 15, 2013
What should the Jazz do in the meantime? Should they trade for a point guard, sign a free agent, or just keep the point guards (John Lucas III, Scott Machado, and Lester Hudson) on the training camp roster on the regular season roster until Burke is back? Several viewpoints and rumors have been floating around. Jazz Nation (@WeAreJazzNation - seriously, follow him if you're not already!) mentioned liking Rodrigue Beaubois. Matt Moore from CBS Sports reported that the Jazz may be interested in acquiring Marquis Teague from the Bulls. Moore also wisely points out that since they're in rebuilding mode anyway, the Jazz don't have a huge need to pick up another point guard. There are reports of a mutual interest between former Jazzman Jamaal Tinsley and the Jazz. Perhaps the most entertaining thought on the matter to me comes from Bleacher Report's Andy Bailey, who thinks it's time to trade for Jimmer Fredette.
My take is that the Jazz would be fine without bringing in another point guard. There are three other point guards still on the roster. Why not hold onto all of them and then let go of Machado or Hudson once Burke is ready to return? The Jazz could even waive Machado or Hudson prior to the season knowing that Alec Burks can handle some of the point guard duties if needed.
What do you think about Burke's injury and the fallout fellow Jazz fans? Feel free to comment, and I'll get a poll added shortly.
Tuesday, October 15, 2013
50 Questions Deserve 50 Answers, Part 2
26. Will Brandon Rush become the 3-and-D player we need to help play defense and stretch defenses?
When he's healthy and ready to go, I think he'll be just that.
27. Will we cry when Richard Jefferson or Brandon Rush start over one of our beloved Core 5?
Some will cry, while others will simply curse Ty.
28. Who will be the leading scorer for the Jazz this year?
Gordon Hayward. Especially with Burke being out for a while, he'll have the ball in his hands a lot.
29. Will we be sad each time we play the Suns and see Jeff Hornacek manning the other team?
I will be the first time or two. Depending on if/how badly Jeff outcoaches Ty, those feelings may linger.
30. Will either Hayward or Favors get an extension signed before the season starts?
This is a tough one as there hasn't been much in the way of rumors to help gauge how things are going. That said, I think Hayward and the Jazz will reach an agreement on an extension with Favors becoming a restricted free agent next summer.
31. Am I just trolling to get @JazzAM1600 and @PeterJNovak involved?
I don't really know you, but you don't come across as the trolling type.
32. How many times during the year will The Mailman work out with the bigs?
Not as many as we would like. Maybe 2 or 3 times.
33. Will we see any more pictures of Kanter and Malone fishing?
I don't think so.
34. Please?
OK, you talked me into it. Not that I'm Enes or Karl or anyone who has such pictures though.
35. Will Derrick Favors force his way into contention for DPOY?
No, but more people will be aware of him by the end of the season.
36. How many days behind will Matt Harpring’s tweets be this season?
I haven't paid enough attention to pick up on his tweeting patterns in seasons past, so I'll be conservative and say that he'll be 2 days behind as a general rule.
37. Will Hayward become the jack-of-all-trades player we hoped Andrei Kirilenko would be?
Not quite. He's already more polished on the offensive end and is a better scorer than AK-47, and has the tools to be a very good one-on-one and team defender, but I don't think that Hayward will ever be the help shot-blocker Andrei was.
38. Will we be paying attention to March Madness more intently than ever before?
If the Jazz are out of the playoff race by then (and I think they will be), absolutely.
39. How will we feel when we see AK and Deron Williams in Nets uniforms at the ESA?
It won't be that big of a deal since both have already played against the Jazz. I think it will be more of an "awe, that's cute that they're on the same team again" kind of feeling.
40. Will we care about the Hawks more than we ever have with Kyle Korver, Paul Millsap, and DeMarre Carroll on the team?
Yes, but in fairness, I have never cared about the Hawks for more than one game at a time when they are playing against the Jazz.
41. How many game-winning shots will Trey Burke hit?
I'll go with one. I think Hayward will get the opportunity to take most of those shots this year.
42. Can Jeremy Evans find a way to repeat last year’s awesome block on Ronnie Turiaf followed by that awesome dunk?
Probably not. Plays like that just don't happen that often. It's a shame that play last year happened in the preseason.
43. In LA again?
Not unless Turiaf gets traded to the Lakers or Clippers, or by some weird fluke the Jazz play the Timberwolves in LA.
44. Please?
Not even the magic word is enough to make it happen.
45. Is this the most excited you’ve been for the season to start in a long time?
I will say this is the most excited I've been since we were heading into the 2007-08. Even if it took a fluke in Golden State upsetting Dallas, it was exciting to see the Jazz reach the conference finals in 2007.
46. Not just me?
You are not alone. I am here with you. [/creepy use of Michael Jackson lyrics]
47. Will Andrei Kirilenko stay healthy this season?
It depends on how you define "healthy" in this context. If you set the over/under on his number games played at 70, I'll take the under.
48. When we get a top 3 pick in 2014, are we thinking championship in 2016?
YES.
49. Will anyone be surprised if Kanter ends up being the team’s leading scorer?
For this year, yes. I can see it happening by 2014-15 though.
50. Will Hayward or Burke average more assists?
Burke. But Hayward will give him a run for his money.
When he's healthy and ready to go, I think he'll be just that.
27. Will we cry when Richard Jefferson or Brandon Rush start over one of our beloved Core 5?
Some will cry, while others will simply curse Ty.
28. Who will be the leading scorer for the Jazz this year?
Gordon Hayward. Especially with Burke being out for a while, he'll have the ball in his hands a lot.
29. Will we be sad each time we play the Suns and see Jeff Hornacek manning the other team?
I will be the first time or two. Depending on if/how badly Jeff outcoaches Ty, those feelings may linger.
30. Will either Hayward or Favors get an extension signed before the season starts?
This is a tough one as there hasn't been much in the way of rumors to help gauge how things are going. That said, I think Hayward and the Jazz will reach an agreement on an extension with Favors becoming a restricted free agent next summer.
31. Am I just trolling to get @JazzAM1600 and @PeterJNovak involved?
I don't really know you, but you don't come across as the trolling type.
32. How many times during the year will The Mailman work out with the bigs?
Not as many as we would like. Maybe 2 or 3 times.
33. Will we see any more pictures of Kanter and Malone fishing?
I don't think so.
34. Please?
OK, you talked me into it. Not that I'm Enes or Karl or anyone who has such pictures though.
35. Will Derrick Favors force his way into contention for DPOY?
No, but more people will be aware of him by the end of the season.
36. How many days behind will Matt Harpring’s tweets be this season?
I haven't paid enough attention to pick up on his tweeting patterns in seasons past, so I'll be conservative and say that he'll be 2 days behind as a general rule.
37. Will Hayward become the jack-of-all-trades player we hoped Andrei Kirilenko would be?
Not quite. He's already more polished on the offensive end and is a better scorer than AK-47, and has the tools to be a very good one-on-one and team defender, but I don't think that Hayward will ever be the help shot-blocker Andrei was.
38. Will we be paying attention to March Madness more intently than ever before?
If the Jazz are out of the playoff race by then (and I think they will be), absolutely.
39. How will we feel when we see AK and Deron Williams in Nets uniforms at the ESA?
It won't be that big of a deal since both have already played against the Jazz. I think it will be more of an "awe, that's cute that they're on the same team again" kind of feeling.
40. Will we care about the Hawks more than we ever have with Kyle Korver, Paul Millsap, and DeMarre Carroll on the team?
Yes, but in fairness, I have never cared about the Hawks for more than one game at a time when they are playing against the Jazz.
41. How many game-winning shots will Trey Burke hit?
I'll go with one. I think Hayward will get the opportunity to take most of those shots this year.
42. Can Jeremy Evans find a way to repeat last year’s awesome block on Ronnie Turiaf followed by that awesome dunk?
Probably not. Plays like that just don't happen that often. It's a shame that play last year happened in the preseason.
43. In LA again?
Not unless Turiaf gets traded to the Lakers or Clippers, or by some weird fluke the Jazz play the Timberwolves in LA.
44. Please?
Not even the magic word is enough to make it happen.
45. Is this the most excited you’ve been for the season to start in a long time?
I will say this is the most excited I've been since we were heading into the 2007-08. Even if it took a fluke in Golden State upsetting Dallas, it was exciting to see the Jazz reach the conference finals in 2007.
46. Not just me?
You are not alone. I am here with you. [/creepy use of Michael Jackson lyrics]
47. Will Andrei Kirilenko stay healthy this season?
It depends on how you define "healthy" in this context. If you set the over/under on his number games played at 70, I'll take the under.
48. When we get a top 3 pick in 2014, are we thinking championship in 2016?
YES.
49. Will anyone be surprised if Kanter ends up being the team’s leading scorer?
For this year, yes. I can see it happening by 2014-15 though.
50. Will Hayward or Burke average more assists?
Burke. But Hayward will give him a run for his money.
Friday, October 11, 2013
50 Questions Deserve 50 Answers, Part 1
As I mentioned in my previous post, there are a lot of sources of Utah Jazz news and discussion. One of those is Salt City Hoops. It's the ESPN TrueHoop Utah Jazz site, and has lots of great content. Recently, their writer Laura Thompson (@hoopslaureate on twitter) asked 50 questions about the 2013-14 season for the Utah Jazz. I'm going to take my best shot at answering them all, starting with the first 25.
1. What will the Win/Loss totals look like?
Many things I've read about the Jazz in the national media talk about the Jazz tanking and how the team will struggle. I think the Jazz have enough talent and athleticism to win a few more games than some people think. Through training and camp and 1 preseason game, I'm going with 34-48.
2. Will we be better or worse than the Lakers?
I think the Jazz will end up with a worse record than the Lakers. Kobe will be back at some point, Pau Gasol is still very good, and Steve Nash is likely to miss less games than last season. I think the Lakers will at least manage to finish near the .500 mark.
3. Will we luck out and get one of the top three picks in the stacked 2014 draft?
The Jazz will have better odds of landing a top three pick than in most years, but I don't see them bucking the odds and having one of their combinations drawn during the 2014 draft lottery.
4. How closely will we be paying attention to Golden State’s record, hoping for another good pick?
I can't speak for all Jazz fans, but I'll be paying more attention early in the season. Unfortunately, I think the Warriors will do pretty well this year, so this story line will get less interesting as the season goes on.
5. Will Enes Kanter please wear a Spongebob t-shirt again?
I don't know, but I tried to help the cause:
6. Or maybe Finding Nemo?
I'd say we're more likely to see him in a Spongebob shirt again.
7. Or maybe one of the minions from Despicable Me?
See answer to question 6.
8. Who will become the more vocal leader: Gordon Hayward or Derrick Favors?
Prior to seeing that clip of Favors saying he isn't really as quiet as people think, I'd have said Hayward easily. Now I think they both be pretty vocal, which is what the team needs.
9. Will Alec Burks start or be the top scorer off the bench?
He'll be the top scorer off the bench. Coach Corbin seems super impressed by Richard Jefferson, so I think he (Jefferson) will start.
10. How many times after each game will Ty Corbin say the players were “tremendous” at something?
His tppg ("tremendous" per post game)average will be around 2.4.
11. How many corner threes will the Jazz shoot?
I'll go with 345, which is a slight increase from last season.
http://stats.nba.com/teamShotchart.html?TeamID=1610612762&Season=2012-13&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&display-mode=performance&zone-mode=zone
12. How many 20/20 games will Kanter have?
There were only 18 20/20 games in the entire league last year, so don't think of it as a knock on Kanter when I say he'll get 1 this year.
13. How many ankles will Trey Burke break with his crossover?
8 - that's both ankles on 4 different opponents.
14. Will Andris Biedrins score more points this year than last year?
According to projections on basketball-reference.com, he'll only need to play about 175 to score 25 points on the season. Unless he is constantly subjected to hack-a-Biedrins, he'll get his 25 points.
15. Will Favors develop a go-to move?
Since Derrick himself doesn't seem overly concerned with not having one, I don't think he'll develop one this year.
16. How many corner threes will the Jazz give up?
295. Book it! (Or not, this is an unscientific guess).
17. How many variations of a beard will Gordon Hayward display this season?
Does each day without shaving count as a variation? If so, then we should see the one day beard, two day beard, and maybe even the three day beard.
18. How many threes will Ian Clark attempt per game?
1.7
19. How many alleyoops will Jeremy Evans finish this year?
He only had 4 last year, making all of his alley oop dunk attempts and missing his only layup attempt. He should get more playing time, but it remains to be seen if Jeremy can develop the same kind of chemistry he had with Earl Watson with Trey Burke JL III. I'll go with 7.
20. What will Rudy Gobert’s career high for blocks in a game be after this season?
5. He'll have at least one game where he just blocks shots in bunches.
21. Will Richard Jefferson be able to resurrect his career now that he’s wearing #24 again?
Of course, because it's all about the uniform number.
22. Will we mourn the loss of our last #24 the next time we play in Miami?
No, I think we'll mourn that loss more when the Jazz play the Hawks.
23. Who on earth are some of these folks on the training camp roster?
This is always a tough question. Let's just hope some of them can provide some preseason entertainment, a la Darnell Jackson.
24. Will Marvin Williams be able to find an effective role within the offense this year?
I want the answer to be yes, but I'm skeptical.
25. Will Trey Burke take to heart Stockton’s advice about getting teammates involved early, and that being a good passer will make one a better shooter?
To a point, yes. Burke will still look for his own shot more than Stockton generally did, but he'll find a good balance between that and involving his teammates as the year goes on.
1. What will the Win/Loss totals look like?
Many things I've read about the Jazz in the national media talk about the Jazz tanking and how the team will struggle. I think the Jazz have enough talent and athleticism to win a few more games than some people think. Through training and camp and 1 preseason game, I'm going with 34-48.
2. Will we be better or worse than the Lakers?
I think the Jazz will end up with a worse record than the Lakers. Kobe will be back at some point, Pau Gasol is still very good, and Steve Nash is likely to miss less games than last season. I think the Lakers will at least manage to finish near the .500 mark.
3. Will we luck out and get one of the top three picks in the stacked 2014 draft?
The Jazz will have better odds of landing a top three pick than in most years, but I don't see them bucking the odds and having one of their combinations drawn during the 2014 draft lottery.
4. How closely will we be paying attention to Golden State’s record, hoping for another good pick?
I can't speak for all Jazz fans, but I'll be paying more attention early in the season. Unfortunately, I think the Warriors will do pretty well this year, so this story line will get less interesting as the season goes on.
5. Will Enes Kanter please wear a Spongebob t-shirt again?
I don't know, but I tried to help the cause:
@Enes_Kanter, @hoopslaureate would very much enjoy it if you wear a Spongebob shirt again at some point. Just sayin'.
— Buckle Up Jazz (@buckleupjazz) October 11, 2013
6. Or maybe Finding Nemo?
I'd say we're more likely to see him in a Spongebob shirt again.
7. Or maybe one of the minions from Despicable Me?
See answer to question 6.
8. Who will become the more vocal leader: Gordon Hayward or Derrick Favors?
Prior to seeing that clip of Favors saying he isn't really as quiet as people think, I'd have said Hayward easily. Now I think they both be pretty vocal, which is what the team needs.
9. Will Alec Burks start or be the top scorer off the bench?
He'll be the top scorer off the bench. Coach Corbin seems super impressed by Richard Jefferson, so I think he (Jefferson) will start.
10. How many times after each game will Ty Corbin say the players were “tremendous” at something?
His tppg ("tremendous" per post game)average will be around 2.4.
11. How many corner threes will the Jazz shoot?
I'll go with 345, which is a slight increase from last season.
http://stats.nba.com/teamShotchart.html?TeamID=1610612762&Season=2012-13&SeasonType=Regular%20Season&display-mode=performance&zone-mode=zone
12. How many 20/20 games will Kanter have?
There were only 18 20/20 games in the entire league last year, so don't think of it as a knock on Kanter when I say he'll get 1 this year.
13. How many ankles will Trey Burke break with his crossover?
8 - that's both ankles on 4 different opponents.
14. Will Andris Biedrins score more points this year than last year?
According to projections on basketball-reference.com, he'll only need to play about 175 to score 25 points on the season. Unless he is constantly subjected to hack-a-Biedrins, he'll get his 25 points.
15. Will Favors develop a go-to move?
Since Derrick himself doesn't seem overly concerned with not having one, I don't think he'll develop one this year.
16. How many corner threes will the Jazz give up?
295. Book it! (Or not, this is an unscientific guess).
17. How many variations of a beard will Gordon Hayward display this season?
Does each day without shaving count as a variation? If so, then we should see the one day beard, two day beard, and maybe even the three day beard.
18. How many threes will Ian Clark attempt per game?
1.7
19. How many alleyoops will Jeremy Evans finish this year?
He only had 4 last year, making all of his alley oop dunk attempts and missing his only layup attempt. He should get more playing time, but it remains to be seen if Jeremy can develop the same kind of chemistry he had with Earl Watson with Trey Burke JL III. I'll go with 7.
20. What will Rudy Gobert’s career high for blocks in a game be after this season?
5. He'll have at least one game where he just blocks shots in bunches.
21. Will Richard Jefferson be able to resurrect his career now that he’s wearing #24 again?
Of course, because it's all about the uniform number.
22. Will we mourn the loss of our last #24 the next time we play in Miami?
No, I think we'll mourn that loss more when the Jazz play the Hawks.
23. Who on earth are some of these folks on the training camp roster?
This is always a tough question. Let's just hope some of them can provide some preseason entertainment, a la Darnell Jackson.
24. Will Marvin Williams be able to find an effective role within the offense this year?
I want the answer to be yes, but I'm skeptical.
25. Will Trey Burke take to heart Stockton’s advice about getting teammates involved early, and that being a good passer will make one a better shooter?
To a point, yes. Burke will still look for his own shot more than Stockton generally did, but he'll find a good balance between that and involving his teammates as the year goes on.
Wednesday, October 9, 2013
I'm Back!
Hey everyone! Six years since my last post on this blog, I'm back. We'll see how things go, but I'm not planning another six-year absence any time soon. Let's talk Jazz basketball! I've also started a Twitter account (@buckleupjazz) and Facebook page (http://www.facebook.com/buckleupjazz) to facilitate Jazz discussion.
I know there are a lot of sources of Utah Jazz news and discussion. I'll do my best to give you a reason to come back here. Stay tuned for an actual Jazz-related post.
I know there are a lot of sources of Utah Jazz news and discussion. I'll do my best to give you a reason to come back here. Stay tuned for an actual Jazz-related post.
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